Daily Finance Pulse USA – 17 September 2025
Wall Street edged lower overnight as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy decision today, September 17, 2025. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all open for trading. Market sentiment is cautiously neutral amid expectations for the first Fed rate cut of the year. Headline inflation remains sticky above 2%, but labor market weakness and a strong dollar retreat are bolstering gold and Bitcoin, both up sharply. Global markets are watchful ahead of US policy signals.
1/10
Markets Slightly Down: Fed’s Looming Rate Decision Drives Cautious Trade, Await Policy Signal
Major US indices closed modestly lower on September 16, 2025, as investors braced for the Fed meeting outcome. The Dow Jones last closed at 45,757.90, down 0.27%; the S&P 500 at 6,606.14, down 0.14%; and the Nasdaq at 22,333.96, down 0.07%—all still near record highs. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, its first reduction since December 2024, amid mixed signals on inflation and jobs. Stocks fell partly on Nvidia and UnitedHealth weakness, while Oracle and Webtoon gained.
Impact: Market pause before Fed; expect volatility at 2 p.m. ET on policy decision and dot plot.
2/10
Fed Poised to Cut: First Rate Reduction in 2025 Expected, 25 bps Most Likely
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting September 16, 2025, with markets pricing in a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, the first since December 2024, bringing the federal funds target to 4.00–4.25%. There is a 4% chance of a larger 0.50% cut. Inflation remains above target (August CPI: 2.9%), but job growth has weakened, with 22,000 jobs added in August. The Fed’s economic projections will be scrutinized for further easing signals.
Impact: First rate cut since 2024 could ease borrowing costs for consumers and businesses; watch for forward guidance.
3/10
Inflation Stays Stubborn: August CPI 2.9%, Core 3.1%—Fed’s Dilemma
US annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in August 2025, the highest since January, after holding at 2.7% in June and July. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) held at 3.1%. Food, used cars, and energy prices all rose, while shelter inflation moderated slightly. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast for September CPI is 3.0% year-over-year, suggesting little relief near-term.
Impact: Higher-for-longer inflation complicates Fed’s dovish pivot; consumer prices remain a headwind.
4/10
Job Market Cools: August Payrolls +22K, Revisions Show Further Softness
The US labor market showed further signs of cooling, with only 22,000 jobs added in August (July revised to 79,000, June revised down to –13,000), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate edged up, but remained under 4%. Fed officials are closely monitoring labor trends as they weigh rate cuts.
Impact: Softer job growth supports the case for Fed easing, but wage pressures could persist.
5/10
Tech Takes a Breather: Nasdaq Near Record, But Nvidia Drags
The Nasdaq Composite last closed at 22,333.96, down just 0.07% from its all-time high set Monday, September 15, 2025. Nvidia shares fell on reports of weak AI chip demand in China, weighing on the Dow and S&P. Oracle and Webtoon rose on deal news. The Nasdaq is still up 4.1% month-to-date and 15.7% year-to-date.
Impact: Tech remains market leader, but China headwinds and Fed policy could drive near-term volatility.
6/10
Dollar at Multi-Year Low: DXY Falls to 96.65 Ahead of Fed
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 96.65 on September 16, 2025, its lowest close since February 2022, as investors anticipated Fed rate cuts. The WSJ Dollar Index dropped 0.54% to 94.11, down 8.4% year-to-date. A weaker dollar supports commodities and emerging markets.
Impact: Dollar weakness could boost US exports but may fuel imported inflation.
7/10
Gold Hits Record High: Spot Gold $3,692/oz as Dollar, Yields Fall
Gold surged to a record $3,692.10 per ounce as the dollar and Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed meeting. Bullion is up over $1,100 year-on-year as investors seek hedges against inflation and currency depreciation.
Impact: Gold rally signals broad risk-off sentiment; could extend if Fed signals prolonged dovish stance.
8/10
Oil Rises on Supply Fears: WTI at $64.55, Brent at $68.56
Crude oil prices climbed as geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar offset demand concerns. WTI crude rose 1.9% to $64.55 per barrel; Brent crude rose 1.7% to $68.56 per barrel on September 16, 2025. Prices are up nearly 3% month-on-month but remain below 2024 highs.
Impact: Oil gains could feed into broader inflationary pressures if sustained.
9/10
Bitcoin Jumps: Tops $116,800 on Rate Cut Bets
Bitcoin gained 1.3% to $116,824 on September 16, 2025, its highest close since mid-August, as investors positioned for Fed easing and a weaker dollar. Crypto market cap stands at $4.1 trillion, with Bitcoin up 25% year-to-date.
Impact: Crypto rally reflects risk-on sentiment and inflation hedging; volatility likely around Fed decision.
10/10
Apple, Tesla Earnings Season Nears: No Fresh Reports, but Tech in Focus
No major US corporate earnings were reported September 16, 2025, but Apple and Tesla remain in focus ahead of their next quarterly updates. Apple’s last report showed record iPhone and services revenue, while Tesla’s Q2 saw its biggest revenue drop in a decade.
Impact: Tech earnings could set the tone for Q4 as markets digest Fed policy shifts.